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資信科技會取代汽車的使用嗎？
TECHNOLOGIES SUBSTITUTE THE USE OF AUTOMOBILE
(婣
邇谅與^荥
TRENDS & FUTURE
；蕭始耀博士DR. BOBBY SIU ►    ►►►►►►►► ►
Ic ha& been predicted that, with the advance of computer, technology and telecommunications ^ many of our daily tasks will be 、performed through our home )terminals.    As long as we have a computer >and a telephone at home (which can. be hooked up to varioul services and workplaces), most of our mundane shopping, banking, arul information-related work can be done at home.    According to the prediction,  this will drastically diminish the use of automobiles by people.    This certainly will have serious implicatioris 1 for the automobile industry.
While home-banking, home-services, and home-working will soon be a reality, the advance of information technology;;; will not displace the use of cars^: In fact,  as I am going to argue, it will actually enhance the uses ) of automobiles in the future-To make such a prediction, certain, assumptions have to be made：    the availability of carss the availability of affordable energy supply,  the dispersed distribution of population 1 《suburbanizatiorO , and the
-據戮測'當電腦科技及電信學越) 來越先,時，人類的日常事務将可 茌家毪的終端機上辦理妥當。只要 家裡装^一部電話及電腦（這跌儀I 器可接駁至不同的服務處及工作地^
點》。g常購物、前往銀行及》資： 信有關的工作將可在家裡完成。玛K 此進一步的預測是：入類使用汽直^ 的機會將會下降。
我並不同意這S預鉀。當人類足蒙
不出戶而可辦妥一切款項存提，享I 受各種服務甚至辦^時，資信科技M 的進步不單不會取代汽車的使用。| 之後者的使用率會更1高。
作出這項預測》當然需要一些ill 設，如汽車的供應、能源的供應、
人fa的散佈〔市郊化）r人們的讓誦 買力'如果上述假設大致上是正確 的話，以下是汽.車將1會變得更爲壽議 及的理由：
汽車工業在北美洲是一 pg價値)f 1 萬元的行業，如果放棄此行業'議顏 失實在厳重，蓋其投資額相當高昂
。因此，維持這行工^業繼續生存！ 去及賺錢，實在有此必要•試想i糊 一 業從業員的人輛及所賺的利 濶'虛行業已成爲美S經濟的巾,麵 ®%J所以，汽車工業在設計汽議鬆 f面将會逐漸融灘資信科技，^趣I： 場推廣亦會相當活躍。
加拿大人茌各方面都十分依賴議| 車，不少車主更盛讚汽車所瘙供的
方便及自由。事實上a汽車亦較以
前令人變得更流動•就^:資信科技 怎樣先進，（人不必四處走動來完義，
工作）•茌未來的數個年代也不瞧應 把對汽車的依賴完全撇除。
子及微型«腦的發達會改害菌M 車:能^:道路資料系統。尤以導路 領航、k度控制、引擎發動及省油 方更爲顯著。電信學將可幫助改 善道^行車量及女通^制'進而降 、、, 低駑駛技術的要求•這種降低技術 的過程可以,一撮新駕車人士如老 |人及傷殘人士使用汽車。司槿、年齢
reasonable level of purchasing ( power amorig people.    If these ) assumptions are more or less valid,  the following" factors wiljl make the\ use of automobiles more; popular In future:
First of all, the automobile industry in North America is a multi-million dollar industry.', The capital investment in \ car-production makes it very costly to abandon the industry-In fact,  it is almost ^essential to keep the industry alive and t prosper-    Consider the number of workers the industry employs ands the amount of profits it generates, it has become the ： central pillar in the U.S. j economy.    Therefore, it is expected that the automobile industry will aggressively l incorporate the information, technologies in its design of cars, and marketing its prodjucts \ will be more active.
Canadians have become both physically and psychologicarlly depending on automobiles-    Many ： car-owners cherish the convenience and freedom that cars have provided, j Cars have indeed made people more mobile than- before. Even with the advance of [ information technologies  (which do not require people to move physically to get things done)B this dependency on cars is difficult to shake off in the next, few generations1. "
The advance in electronics'and microcomputers may improve automobile performance and iroad information system. Great improveRients will be seen in road
也會隨之下降》轉而包括少年人N ' 當人類人口逐漸老化及加上傷殘人, 士時*駕車人士的數目實際上會出： 現上升的現象。
在廿一世紀的上:半，世紀》 S少資； 信工作會在家進行，生產機搆則設；
a市郊；大部份的生產工作，將由； 散置式小型工場的機械人承擔-而| —由一小撮工人來管理這些自動化工― '場。铤此同時，一人一種行業的傳 統觀^會慢慢消失。》fc際上，這種： 潮流已經開始,，將來-亦會越來越； 多人茌同一時間替二至三個僱主工:； 作。這種散置式工壕及兼職工作的 系統'在將來工作進一步縮短時更
華準人事
#倫多市堅M敦耆英聯誼會，定！
於二月十五日星期六（年初七）。r 中午十二時至下午五時'在市區牛；
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晨曆新年聯歡，招待該會老人及來
賓共賀新春。節目包括：H中華文:
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鐯及柳毅傳書兩齣粵劇'，並唱、粵曲： '晚間假座新光酒樓歡敍*歓\迎來. 賓參加"席券每^十六元，午間茶：
點每位一元五角'請ffi余永然接洽i
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東輕工業品展銷
由中國珍寳藝術公司及中國物產 展示中心聯合策劃安排的乂一個綜 合性大型貿易訂貨會，由中國輕工 業品進出口總公司、寧東省分公司 主辦的"中國廣東省輕工業品貿易〃
洽談會w  、將於三月十日至十五日' 茌多倫多文華邨擧行。由該公司副 ^經理林啓安率領之十入貿易團n 屆時將在文塞村二樓接待新舊客戶
navigationt  speed control, engine V
emissions, and fuel efficiency.
Telecomuiunicatioh technologies
will improve road capacities and
traffic control whjjch. means the
lowering of the requirement for
driving skills!    Such deskilling
process will enable new groups of
car-users such as the elderly and:
handicapped persons-    Driver age
will be lower to include early
i teens.    With the aging population
and a large pool of handicapped persons,  the number of people who ；
can drive will actually increase-
In the first half of the 21st
century,  although most information
work Will be done at. home ；' many
manufacturing firms will be
located in suburban, areas.
Increasingly, much of the
manufacturiag will be done by
robots in sm"l decentralized.
factories.   '"However,  a small
number of workers will be hired to-
maintain these automated *
factories.    At the same time, the
traditional concept of .one career
per worker atgiyen. time will
cease to be popular-    This trend
has already begun, and in future,
more and more people will be
working for two or morie employers
at a given t'ime.
This system of decentralized
workplace, and two-career workers
will be further enhanced by
shorter work weeks in the future-
All these changes can only
Increase the use of cars as people
commute between workplaces.
There^ is also a limit in
expandia9 che public
transportation system in a society;
where decentralization of
會白熱化。所以這類改變只會增力口
汽直的使用，因爲人ffl要往來不同
的地點9
-.不過'當散置式，r場的潮流變得 越普及時，公共交通的擴展却受到 限制。因爲公共交通系統或會興起 ；部份入i會扮演蒹職"的士司機 w的S式來乗載其他人士 o這與目 下的全職的士司機沒多大^別，只：
是在新科技年代下》人類茌上班或 外出活動之傺，順道乗載其^人士 。租輋的生惫除變得蓬勃外»^會
更加方便，將來它們普及的程度和 ，時的雜貨店或提款機不遑多讓。？
這種副交通系統得以發展？當然是：
洽談進出
an
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；workplaces has become a norfm. 一 ：This is because running a public transportation system depends largely on tax-payers' mo'ney 1 Xn. ；futuref a para-transit system may emerge in wnich some people will act as ^taxi-drivers0 oh a part-time basis to move people around.    This is not very different from what i we have fiov except these 'taxi-drivers* are also full-time workers who, based, on che new inforiuacion technologies, are able to pick up people oh their ways to work oij attend funptiorls.    Car-rental, businesses will be more popular„ and will be made more convenient^ ,They will be as common as the present corner grocery stores or machine-tellers.    What makes this paca-transit system feasible is the advance in information 。 technologies which allows 。 coordination of car-pooling and car-traffic much easier-
At present, leisure driving constitutes a large proportion of driving time in North America. It is expected that this pafitlj|rn will regain except the travel distance in the future will even be.highez：。 This is due to the fact that t information technologies cUnrtot substitute the pleasure oi face-to-face interactions with friends or relatives.    Due to shorter work-week and dispersed living, more people will take weekend trips to travel, to visit friends, to join sport activities, and t6 attend social functions卜 The increased dominance of information tecn.iologies in, everyday life makes people value more about social gatherings and leisure activities.    They are prepared to travel long distance « especially when, cars have become easier to drive and the traffic system has become more regujlated by information technologies ！.
由於資信科技令到汽車集中及父 聯絡更爲容易：
目，，閑暇駕駛佔去北美鎗韋人 士大部份的駕駛時間。此模式仍會 保留下來，但将來的行駛距罈會更 遠。這是因爲資信科技不能取代人 們©親友見面的喜樂，由於縮短工 作時間及分散居住，不少人^:将會
利用周末旅行、探訪親友、參^i: 育及社交活動。資信科技與日常生
活的關係變得密^ »人們便會越發 珍惜社交聚會及康樂活働。因此當 駕駛汽車成爲一件易事、交勉系統 ^由資fi科技監管，人們將更願意
駕駛長途汽車。'
報名請
292—75 10 o
長春會新貫就職春節聯歡
大多市華人長春彘第九屆執監委 員業於去年g依章選出（名單列後 )8現該會一於一九八六年二月廿 二日中午十二時半'茌施素街思豪 宁心禮堂擧行慶祝成立十四適年紀 孝曁新員。就職典禮是晚假座登打士 ，街金篛堂酒樓擧行春節聯歡宴會. ft以資慶祝，席金每位十四元»參 加者請親臨該會或電5 9 8 —3 5 6 2
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該會第九屆執監委員名單：主席 陳鈞漢，副主席林尚德、高紀)常，
;中文秘書陳海洲a副中文秘書黃樹 ：景-英文秘書梁國榮。副英文秘書 ；鄒慧新》財務主任林子潮'副財務 i主任楊雲熾'總務主任黃德馨，副 ；總^，任李羅雪芳.寧樂主任何北 ；鎭，副康樂主任戚澤鱼»文化主任 古譚慧容-副文化主任鄧楝，,福利 主任李伍月瓊a副福利主任^濬祥 吳芳s公關主任李鳳携a副公
監察主任邱松坌， 玉》監察委員李志
>蔡擘林:，
一        任劉立恩 1副監察主任余 何高玉
、
核黃水津、劉立恩。