Thursday. Ffebnuiry^ll. 1982 — THE BULLETIN— S
s successor remains enigma for lsra#i
By HARRY WALL
For a nation that has been tested all too frequently on the sudden shifts and |»f)tenviote^^^ the Middli^st, Israel was severely jolted by the assasunation of Egyptian President Anwar Sadat. No other countiy, except Egypt itself, was do directly affected by the shot^ that felled the Egyptian leader. The dislocatioios in Egypt could have profound implications for Israel's foreign and domestic pplides.
For Israel/wHich had gambled $0 much on the pi^ce^ process, the day of reckoning that everyone dreaded arrived much sooner than this nation ever antidpated. Underl^g the three-year-old peace process was the anxiety of what would happen after SadatV departure from the political scene. Much as. the question had loomed over this' nation; hardly anyone was prepared to address it so soon, and; ^der |udi^adverse cir-, cuinstanc^.
III the d^s following the shooting of Sadat, b^th£g)i)tiatt and Israeli leadeirs have repeatedly and publicly voiced their assurances that the peace prp(»ess would continue on course^^itsident-elect Ifosni Mubarak poihtediy delivered this message in'^nedf his iiRt inters witfr ilielsraieU daily :M?^ir^ rei^iated the same theme in his talks with I^me Minister Be^h and U .S. Sectetary^of State Alexander Haig during tfieir stay in puro. Israeli government officials, for their part, have niade similar deciar^io»ns, ^ noting ;Ui«|;thet^^^was^^ with one man,. but with ah entire ■ nation^;' ■• h^,.^.. '^^y,.- ]--■:■' But beneath the public pronouncements there is much doUbt and nervous tension in Jerusalem, IsrselknpWs that the course of peace never -cypived naturally; It was orchestrated by one mail who jguided it with a rigid hand through its fits and starts. Where once there had been strength of purpose personified by a domihaht'Ieader in'Gairoj there < exists now a'^litical enigma.-What worries Israel is not so much the
readiness ih Egypt to continue along Sadat^s path,, but the ability bf his successors to do so. > Hosni Mubarakv despite his six ■years as Sadat's deputy, is for all intents and- purposes a question mark in Ijsraef. He has visited Israel only once. And during their several meetings with^ their Egyptian coun-^ terpartSv Israeli leaders rarely got a
by extension, to the peace process.
Israel is also alert to the impact Sadat*s violent fall will have on the stability > of the region. The jubilant reactions in Libya, Syria and the PLO augur a fresh attempt by the Arab rejectionists to undermine the delicate peace. The Israel Defense Foross are also on the alert to any attempt by the PLO to take advan-
P^IME MINISTER BEGIN (right) returned from hjs discuss!^
President Hosni Mubarak following the funeral of Anwar S^dat conWoccd that tte
peace process would continue.
Harry Wall is director of the Israel Office for the Anti-Defamation - League^ of B^naiBVith.;:
close : understanding of Mubarak whOj, for the most part, was overshadowed by Sadat. Some Israeli observers found Mubarak to be a hardliner in thii negotiations with
Isrft^ over hormali^ sM^ nomy. Mpredistndniig; is th^^ : hasi played laiEj^t"^ inain politic^l^ link to the Ajrab world:
Mubarak is knowh for his pro-^ Saudi leanings and his close ties with thf royal ifamily in Riyadh. It Was Mubarak who conducted the secret negotiations last year with the Saudis in order to explore the possibility of reestablishing diplomatic relations with Riyadh. Unlike Sadat, Mtibarak is thought less likely, for both personal and political reasons, to dismiss the Arab rejectionists out of hand, an attitude that gives Jerusalem pause for concern.
Israel, in the testing period that lies ahead, will be carefully moni* toring Egypt*s intent and ability to remain on the peace track. Of crucial interest in Jerusalem. i&^MUbarakV fiontrol over therani^, the > main source of authority in E^tiSerldUs misgivings linger here ovOTtfhe extent of military involvement in the assassination of Sadat, hraeli intelli-geiice experts, according td. some fordgn press reports, fire Convinced that Sadat*^ killers received assis^ taihce and support from senipr eletnents in the army and adtniiii-: stration. True or not, some military analysts antidpate a purge in the Egyptian army. But if a purg^^es place this in itself cotild be ^re--carious to Mubarak^ support and
tag^ ;6f> the recent events to destabilize; the situation, possibly by termi-natipii the<^^-llre 9^^^ border iahd^b^ Stepping up its act3 of terri^rfem^^ ■
the Bc^;'^P^ is also
^indful<>f the effect Sadat*^ depart ' turev\i|i]lhavejn the W^ and Gaza, wliera the a^ greetied with reUef by the^Paliestinwn inhabitants. Only recently, under a plan drawn up by Defensf^inister Ariel Sharon, Israel had beeii loosening its militaiy control over the occupied territories, a unilateral mpye that would form the de facto basis for Israel's autonomy scheme. This would result in restoring civilian rule to the local populace, while Israel would retain control of military and security matters in the territories; Sharonls plan; however, may now be aborted as a result of the . assassination. It seems more doubtful now than ever that a Palestinian notable in the pccupied territories wotjJd, run the physical risk o^ pariicipdiihg in any autohpniy air-
is ifPw ejEpected to ^nie fpilii^d' follpWv;§ddat>^^^ fbptstqwJ^ it' wa^i iidtevrarthy thatthe Pn^ pf state tpatteiiddieii^ were from SUdaii and Sottialia. The assessment here - is that JSadat^f assassiiis Idiled, for tlw f^ future, any pp»ibitity for broadening the peace iniitiative among Israers neighbors. Sadatllsmiirder by men in uniform ;whpin^ the Egyptians claim were Moslem fana^ tics, V shpulid seryJB as a cl
reminder to other Arab leaders of their own vulnerability.
Of critical importance for Israel will be the rPle the United States; assumes in the Middle East dufing the coming weeks: and months. Itt was significant that the reaction 4n Jerusalem was muted to Yit^k Rabin's statemeiit that the Reagan Administratioir's tilt toward Saudi Arabia, at theexpense of Egypt, was a factor in SadafSsf^ll. While Rabin
may, have crudely Pverstated the case, there is cause to ask in Egypt, just as thereisin Israel, why old and trusted allied are treated les favor> ably than one who has yet to prove the mettle of its friendship.
The underlying feeling here is that since the Reagan AdministratiOB took office, the U.S. has been lagging as a "third partner" in the
(Continued on Page 8) See: COMMENTARY
The weeks go by slowly (or three Moscow Jew» sentenced to long prison terms lor wanting to leave the country.
VLADIMIR
SLEPAK
NUMBER OF WEEKS ALREADY SUFFERING THE GULAG ORDEAL:
■ • • •
IDA
190
igo
ANATOty
WHAT CAN YdUDO?
The Helsinki Agreement which the Soviet govenunent signed aJlpwsvfqr freedom of emigration. Let our voices — tenets, telegrams and phone calls — exprcess our protest to Western leaclers to intercede and to the Soviets to set them free.
THIS WEEK WRITE PRISONER:
Alexei Murzhenko Uchr 5110/t, V$, Moscow, USSR.
Froin For Israelis, Bar KochbaisnY: ancient history: ,
JERUSALEM— Later this year, in great pomp and ceremony^ Israel will hold a state fiineral forone of the nation*s most controversial military heroes. But the funeral/in this case, is also a revival, for Shimon Bar Kocbba, the^general to be honored, died^almost 2,000 years ago. He was the comni^der-in-chief of the ser cohd Jewish revolt against Rome in 132 A.D. which briefly established a free Jewish state in the land of Israel, but was eventually crushed..
ForTeasons having to do as much with-present-day politics as with history, the story of Bar Kochba has increasingly becomesqiriething of ah Israeli obsession. In recent months, the i^tioit has been consumed by a lively^debate on whether, Bkr Kpch-ba*s rebelUon was justified or whether the v^erierar was a wanton adventurer, who foolishly took on the Rpman Empire and caused the destructibii of the Jewish people in thdr faome^ ..
ITiel^imuiTiiid other sources spoke of JBteir Kbc^ as a cniel, imperious > leader and as a failed messiah. But wrtth tK^^ M
Zionism, the general came to be seen as a freedom fighter who had waged the last battle for the Jewish nation in its land...
; Last year, (Bar Kochba) was attacked by Yehoshafat Harkabi, foriner head of military intelligence who is also an expert on Arab affairs and professor of international relations. In a- short book entitled **Facing Reality,** Dr. Harkabi accused Bar Kochba of waging an' unrealistic policy which brought about the decimation of the Jewish ..people. ■-.
Dr. Harkabi wrote^ that wars ha^^ to be judged by the results, and the result of the Bar Kochba reyolt was mass suffering, the loss of Jerusalem and the Diasporau^He also said that the Romans would never have allowed Judea to be fteCi that/the 4>o$sibility of winnipg the war was nil and that there had been alternatiyes to outright rebellion. "TTie.probiem is not how Bar Kochba erred," Dr. Harkabi wrote, "but how we came X6 admire his error and how this influences the manner of our national thinking. By admiring the Bar, Kochba revolt, we are fprced into the; position of admiriAjg.Qyrdestmrt ,
'and rejoicing over a deed ambiihting to national suicide.**
Dr. Harkabi suggested that current isracJi policy was also unrealistic. **In the Zionist movement there were already possibilities for ir-realism,:* he said. "But 19|67 strengthened the tendency. The irrealism in the present period is that we should stay in the West Bank .. ,**
J^iw Friedman Jan. 31/42
From ft^dtmt^l educatito
In 110 ar^ erf" public i*^ President Reaga^
more urgent a year ago tlian in fprei^ policy and diefense.Pr^
admiiiistrationSf he cliarged, h^d^te^^ ; America*^ prestige in tatters a^ security in peril. He ideiUifiedSovi!^ expansiohisni iis the prindp^^m^ ace to Anierican wdl-beii^^ promised, by "rearming^ aiid by asserting American will, to contain it effectively. Iran's .release,- of the hostages on the day of his inauguration seemed to attest to a general recognition that Washington was getting serious ab6ut power again.
A year later everything seems fuzzier. In foreign affairs^ the early Reagan inclination to base policy on a hard,, consistent ideological line has biroadene^ to iiiclude — although more^mdeeilib^ more pragnujtic readiness to a<^ modate anxious allies and domestic constituencie^^to negotiate on arms contrprwrthf those nasty^ untryst-worthy Russians, for instance, at the sainc time as 'Ke offers a serious strategic arms prograin. - Some of the'CQuntries considered to be ^most in need of a strong Americananti-Communist embrace have shied away from it. Larger regional. considerations have induced Mr. ^Re^gan to take a little distance froiit countries — Israel, Taiwan ahd t<> a lesserdegree South Africa — that had looked forward to special faVor. In defense, meanwhile, the president faces immense pressures^ across most of the political spectrum to scale back planned spending increases.
The public seems to retain confidence in Mj^^^^^ steward-ship, but^after a year his aides keep having to explain why he shoiild not be expected to master the finedctail. In some, respects^ he is no better a manager of policy than was his much-abused predecessor, Jimmy Carter.
^EditDriaUimpi Jan. 31/82
THE SUNEMY TIMES
From Syria ImiKiws puce...
liidependent reports of a well-plann(bd but abortive plot to overthrow the Syrian government have reached the Foreign Offioe, the U.S. State. Deportiiient and.a nuniber of western and Arab governments.
Theplotinchided plans to bomb key military and govemnient targets in and around the capital Damascus, ^nd represented tte most ser^ ipus challenge yet to President HaJfez Assad, who seized power 12 years ago. His home and that of his brother, Rifat Assad, who commands the countiy*s 22,000-strong defjsnce brigades, are reported to have been among the plotter^ targets.
More than 300 members of the-army-and air force have been arrested, and diplomatic^ reports suggest that up.to 50, including 10 brigadiers and a major general, have been sentenced to death ...
The coup attempt could not have come at a worse time, following Israel's virtual annexation of the Golan Heights last (December), and couid ;|iave a serious impact on Syrian relations with Moscow and with other countries. -