Thursday, November 29,1990 ~ THE BULLETIN — 11
o1 Writers
EXPERIENCE ISRAEL IN CANADA
Yerushalem Imports Ltd,
at Bridgepoint Market Near end of No. 3 Road
Exclusive Israeli Arts and Gifts for all occasions
Come see us for all your Chanuka needs
Specialties direct from the Artist to you
No. 60 - 8811 RiTeir Road Riclimond, B.C. V6X 1Y6
270-7180
Bring in this Ad and get 20% OFF Most Items
Unique Handcrafted Custom Designs in Gold & Silver
• Fine Jewellery • Letter
• Dreidlesfor Openers Chanuka and • Jugs Judaica • Goblets
• Cufflinks
• Thimbles
Create a lastmg impresskm whh gifts made in gokl • or999alver
Erich Grill, who was commissioned by the President of Zambia to make a state gift for Her Majesty Queen Bizabeth II on the occasion of her 25th Jubilee, is the fine designer at Panache.
Open Tuesday to Saturday 10-5:30 p.m.
4475 West 10th Ave. 224-2514
Goodmah: No great threat of war, yet recipejor disaster in place
hrChmki
By JANNETTE EDMONDS
"Chances of war in the Gulf are very, very low."
This is the assessment of one of Israel's top military analysts and communicators, Hirsh Goodman.
"And the possibility of Israel being involved in that war are even lower," Goodman, editor of the new international news-magazine Ter-Mjfl/^m/?epor/, proclaimed to a near capacity audience at the JCC recently.
As main speaker at the Seventh Annual Showcase of Jewish Writers, Goodman — his new book Future Battlefields: The A rah Israeli Conflict v/sls also on sale — painted a realistic yet optimistic picture of current events and strategies in the Persian Gulf.
"Saddam Hussein does not want war, especially one he can't win. He has many cracks in his military command and has just fired his chief of staff. There is no surer sign of insecurity in a dictator than when he replaces competent men like his chief of staff — with relatives," he said.
He listed other reasons for his belief that Hussein does not want war.
"Hussein has a real problem with fuel. He produces fuel but not the chemicals needed to refine it. There are only five or six factories in the world which produce these chemicals, so it is easy to control their flow. He can't sneak it in, and he knows he can't win in an all out conflict.'*
"With the American buildup, Israel the regional superpower just next door, with the Syrians and Egyptians against him, totally isolated . . . this is not a good time for him to go to war," he continued.
Goodman feels that Hussein wants to wait for war until "two or three years down the line when they have online nuclear capacity and can produce on-line nuclear weapons."
He told of two Iraqi centrifugal reactors buried deep undergnound, with most of the technology and scientists in place. If unchecked Iraq will become a nuclear power. and "the face of the Middle East and the world will change forever. Mark my words."
Currently though, her chances for victory in war are insignificant, he said, adding that Iraq's military are also not happy with Hussein.
"They're not happy that they lost half-a-million men in Iran and that two months ago Saddam gave up unilaterally every single gain that those
miTlNG NEW ARRIVALS FOR HOLIDAY!
Featuring Gorgeous Velvet and Chiffon Dresses. Canadian-Made Hats, Scarves, Belts and Outrageous Jewellery.
Original Hand Painted Works By
DANA R. WEARABLE ART BY MARCILIPMAN.
Guaranteed to finding a look that makes you feel Your Best. 2194 W. 4th Avenue, Vancouver; B.C. 736-3112
half-million died for. And they're norhappy to go into Kuwait which is self-defeating, when they should be rebuilding their strength after eight years of war with Iran."
Still, Goodman concedes, "This is all logic and logic doesn't apply in the Mideast, so you can go on the assumption that Saddam may miscalculate. He's made bad mistakes in the past and he's
GOODMAN
surrounded by people who only tell him what he wants to hear."
Yet for all his apparent problems, Saddam still has a strategy, says Goodman.
"Saddam has to play for time, to try to drive a wedge into the alliance. To include Israel in the picture would put a strain on a very fragile Arab/ West allianc(e.''
In trying to link what is happening in the Gulf to the Arab-Israeli conflict in order to deflect attention from his actions, Saddam is coming out as saying he is fighting this war for the Palestinians, Goodman said. This puts a wedge in the alliance, changing American perceptions of Islam and shifting Arab perception: from America versus a dictator, to America versus Islam,
"Saddam's^ portrait has replaced the portrait of Arafat throughout the whole of the Territories. The FLO is not a political force anymore. The biggest problem is Iraq becoming the champion of the Palestinian cause^" the well known journalist said.
The Other Iraqi strategy in playing for time is to try to undermine the American resolve.
"Already you see cracks. The President being questioned on the war powers act; suddenly Congressmen saying *why aren't we being considered in the deliberations'; a wedge between the American public and the President," he continued.
So while the world waits to see_what will Jiappen, it is Israel who is paying a large price for being a "strategic ally" Though Goodman the military analyst feels the damage Saddam could do to Israel militarily is minimal, the psychological damage is already heavy.
"It is in Israel that there is
gas mask distribution and the
economic effects of the drop
in tourism. We pay a high cost
for  American  interests in
Kuwait, a country we have no
ties with."
But, Goodman believes, the
biggest mistake Saddam could make would be to lash out at Israel.
"We've made one thing very dear. One real threat, one missile, one bomb, and we will regress Iraq by 10,000 years. One missile in Israel will bring in its response one of the most devastating, quickest, smartest, most accurate, pin-point attacks in the history of warfare, modern and ancient. And Saddam knows it."
Goodman stated: "His air force has never faced a real test and we have the best in the world and there are many in the Israeli military Who (because of Iraq's eventual nuclear capability) would say a confrontation now would be a small price for a big victory down the road."
The author told how only less than two percent of Hussein's aircraft could get through if they tried to reach Israel. And chemical warfare requires too much precision: "What if the missile hit Nablus instead of Jerusalem?"
So although Goodman feels there is no great threat and nobody really wants awar in order to find out, the significance for Israel's political situation has been greatly affected by both this and other internal violence.
"Even the left wing in Israel cannot begin to think about giving up territory. We need the early warning. And while the Palestinians in the Territories are becoming even more discontent, the idea of geo-politically giving them their own state has become impossible to think about.-This contradiction is a recipe for disaster."
He stressed: "There is grow-SHOWCASE— Page 14
Happy Chanuka to All
MAJOUKA IMPORTS LTD
CHANUKA
GIFTS GALORE!
DAILY IN-STORE SPECIALS
Table linens, candles, kitchen & glasswear
3065 W. Broadway •733-1621
Beautiful European and domestic children's fashions from newborn to teens. Select from: Creation Stummer/LeMur, Bravo, Francoise Bouthillier, Esprit, Mexx, Maugin, Berlingot Petit Boy and all at reasonable prices. Come see our new Winter Collections.
20-30% OFF
Coats, Jackets and Fall Co-Ordinates
Children's f^outique
266-1711
the
Perfect Gift
SAFEwmr
Qimuia Safeway Lmiited^
'Tell someone that you care''
Safeway Gift Certificates, (in any denomination you desire),-^re the perfect gift for everyone - friends, relatives, employees, clients, the babysitter, the garbage collector, etc.^.
Also a nice idea for sales incentives or promotions!
There is not a nicer way to say "thanks" or tell someone you carle. Safeway Certificates are also an excellent idea for those on your out-of-town Chanuka list becausie they can be redeerned at any Safeway Store in Canada or the United States ... and it's easy! Certificates available at all Safeway stor'es along with FREE decorative envelopes, or Call (604) 643-6%9 or 687-4833.