Political pundits proffer predictions
Polls show the outcome of the May 29 Israeli election is still anyone's guess.
roberta staley STAFF REPORTER
Israel's peace process will march forward no matter who wins the May 29 election, say Israeli political pundits in Vancouver.
And whether that's good or bad depends on your position in the political spectrum.
"As much as the Israeli public swings one way or another in the short term in ivsponse to diflbr-ent drastic events, there does seem to be growing support ovei' the long run i'ur the peace ]jr(xx3SH," said Di'. Jonathmi Bei-g, a University of Haifa professoi' teaching philosophy at Vancouver's Simon Fniser University for the 1995-96 academic year.
"Even over the last couple of months, overall, the peace process has been gaining momentum," said Dr. Berg who slots himself left of Labor, which won 44 seats in the 1992 national election to Likud's 32.
Rabbi Chaim Marantz, a religious studios teacher at Vancouver's Maimonides Secondary School and a right-wing Likud supporter, condemned attempts to negotiate peace with the Palestine Liberation Organization.
"Before they felt our hesitation, tens of thousands left by themselves. But since they realized, 'Maybe we are going to get a country,' it's encouragement to keep on fighting," said Rabbi Marantz.
Negotiations reached a watershed May 1 when the quasi-parliamentary Palestine National Council voted to remove charter p£issages denying Israel's right to exist. In a quid pro quo gesture. Prime Minister Shimon Peres' Labor party voted the next day to drop the clause in its platform opposing the creation of a Palestinian state.
Labor hasn't said it will give up territory as part of a peace settlement. But Rabbi Marantz feared this is inevitable, adding he would fight the trade of territory for an olive branch. "I feel with all my heart this is our land. It belongs to us. I'm not giving it away even for peace and quiet."
The PLO are playing their cards right, said Dr. Berg. The Palestin(i council's charter amendment "gives credibility to the peace process. There ai-e a lot
of people who have been holding back because the Palestinians hadn't revised the charter. So the fact that they did this will definitely have an effect on some of the swing vote," the professor opined.
The two front runners — Mr. Peres and Likud's Binyamin Netanyahu — are virtually neck-and-neck aca)rding to latest polls. Supjjoil ibr the i\iling Lalwr pai-
but by his fingertips. Yet even if Likud should win, negotiations with the PLO will still continue, Mr. Zait predicted.
"Likud also reahzes that the peace process is a fact. They are not going to back off from it," he declared. "Likud will try to play it in slow motion and put conditions on every step forward. How slow and how the Palestinians ai'e going to react to it is yet to be
Who will be Israel's Shimon Peres (left) or Likud
ty has decreased 25 percentage points since the assassination of Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin Nov. 4, 1995.
Some attribute the enormous swing to the 16-day Grapes of Wrath blitzkrieg in southern Lebanon, which ended in a ceasefire agreement April 26, as well as the preceding suicide-bomb attacks. Others say the overwhelming support indicated a transient expression of general shock at the slaying.
Barring unforseen factors such as possible terrorist attacks, Labor will likely squeak by in the election ahead of Likud, Dr. Berg predicted. "Peres is leading, but not by much. Little things that may happen between now and then could be enough to swing the election one way or another."
Emissary to the Israel Aliyah Centre in Vancouver and Labor supporter, Nachum Zait said Mr. Peres will hold on to power —
next prime minister: leader Binyamin Netanyahu?
who taught at the Ulpanah High School for girls in Arad before coming to Vancouver.
Rabbi Marantz's fears seem at least partly justified. Gary Keenan, spokesman for the Canada Palestine Association in Vancouver who has lived in the Middle East, said Palestinians will continue demanding autonomy in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank and East Jerusalem. But Dr. William Cleveland, SFU history professoi- specializing in modern Middle I'^ast politics, said the Palestinians arc in no position f()i' tough bargaining.
"The Palestinians are desperate. There's no income being generated by tht; West Bank or Gaza. Insofar as PLO leader Yasser Arafat feels any kind of popular pressure, he's really bound to the peace pi-ocess for economic and infrastructure reasons."
Dr. Cleveland said Labor's role as peace architect witli the PLO is bound to alienate some traditional supporters, including the religious right. "The far right is intent on pursuing a settlement policy." But Dr. Cleveland said there's no guarantee Labor will come out on top. "It's a close race."
He said the new election system will further complicate Israel's already complex political structure. In 1992, the Israeli Knesset decided that the prime minister would be elected directly in the national election.
"It is conceivable that they could vote Mr. Peres as prime minister and there could be a Likud majority of seats." And that, predicted Dr. Cleveland, would be "a nightmare." 1 i
seen. If Labor takes over once again, the process will move ahead," Mr. Zait added.
Rabbi Marantz said it's naive to think peace with the PLO will help prevent further bloodshed between Israel and its Arab neighbors. "We are going to face many battles. We didn't finish the war between us and our neighbors," said Rabbi Marantz,
Election education
In 1992, Israel's parliament, the Knesset, approved an amendment which would remove the executive branch from the legislative branch. The most visible result of this change is the direct election of the prime minister.
Canadian Jewish Congress, Pacific region, is organizing a meeting May 21 to explain these changes and their implications. The meeting is set for 7:30 p.m. in the Jewish Community Centre of Greater Vancouver's Sydney and Gertrude Zack Gallery.
Guest panelists include Dr. Jonathan Berg, visiting professor at Simon Fraser University from the University of Haifa; Nachum Zait, Israeli emissary in Vancouver; and Rabbi Chaim Marantz, religious studies teacher at Maimonides Secondary School.
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