THE FISHERMAN, MAY 26, 1997
SIMPOWER
marine
The sky isn't falling over salmon markets
Catch projections in Alaska, B.C. well down from cycle year in '93
Rumours about salmon prices this year are all over the docks, from Seattle to Prince Rupert, as processors and fishermen look to the pre-season forecasts of big runs on sockeye and pinks on both sides of Canada-U.S. border.
The rumours about the UFAWU-FPBA price dispute even showed up in the international trade papers, with Bill Atkinson's News Report noting in the April 2 3 edition: "There are reports that some Canadian packers have reached minimum price guarantees of $1.20/lb. with the seiners, but they are currently trying to renegotiate this minimum price at a lower level of 80 cents to 90 cents/lb."
Not since 1993 has there been so much talk of a glut of salmon and falling prices. But 1997 isn't 1993 and there's no reason prices should be either.
Undoubtedly, the pressure is on for price cuts this year because of the companies' poorer returns on roe herring. Roe prices hit an all-time high in 1996 but they dropped substantially this year and the companies are pushing hard on their salmon margins as a result. In addition, some processors are telling their fishermen that they can except 30 per cent more catch this year because of fleet reduction and can therefore afford to take price cuts.
What is the market going in the first big season in the last three years?
In the first place, the numbers aren't anything like what they were in 1993. On sockeye, DFO is looking at a coastwide catch of somewhere around 12 million coastwide while Alaska is predicting reduced returns for 1997, with the statewide total projected at 45.5 million (catches have actually been below projections in Alaska in two of the last three years).
In 1993, B.C. fishermen landed
16 million sockeye while Alaska brought in 64 million—40 per cent more than what's expected this year.
It's true farmed salmon production is expected to increase this year by about 16 percent over 1996, putting even more pressure on salmon markets. But B.C. had 10 per cent of the key Japanese market in 1993, compared to only four per cent last year, so there's a lot of room for B.C. salmon to gain some lost ground. If ever there was a time for the B.C. Salmon Marketing Council to go after some results in Japan, this is it.
QUICK TAKES
PRODUCT 1996 1995
Export canned sockeye Case 48 halves $103.44 $113.49
Export canned pinks Case 48 halves $39.64 $38.18
Export frozen sockeye Avg., all countries $3.88 $3.96
Alaska, B.C. sockeye catches on 1997 run cycle (pieces)
1997 1993
Alaska (statewide) 45.5 million 64 million
(proj.)
B.C. (coastwide) 12 million (proj.) 16 million
Association, a carton of 48 sockeye halves is currently selling for $103.86, compared to $75 in 1993, an all-time low for the decade.
Inventories of canned sockeye are still fairly high but with lower frozen inventories, much of the catch will go in that direction, anyway. So the available stocks won't be pushed up that much as long as catches stay within projections.
On pinks, the high inventories over the past couple of years have been reduced substantially and processors even managed a price increase earlier this year. FPBA figures put the current price for a case of 48 pink halves
Frozen B.C. sockeye export prices have stayed pretty steady over the last year, averaging $3.88/lb. in 1996, compared to $3.96/11). in 1995. It was $2.45 in 1993.
The price on the Tsukiji market has dropped somewhat—from ¥l,000/kg in January to ¥850 in May—but there are always some price cuts in the spring as importers clear out inventories. The drop is nothing like what it was in 1993 when the price fell from ¥l,300/kg to ¥950 (exchange rates for the two years are about the same).
Frozen sockeye inventories in Japan are down to the lowest level this decade, according to the Alaska Salmon Market Bulletin. The Bulletin also reported April 20: "The market outlook for frozen sockeye this summer looks pretty good."
On canned sockeye, prices are well above what they were in 1993. According to figures provided by the Fish Processors Bargaining
at $38.18 (based on sales from Jan-uary-March, 1997). Sales of B.C. canned pinks to all export markets in 1996 were up to their highest level since 1992.
The projected catch for B.C. pinks of eight million pieces is up over the last couple of years but still less than 1993. Alaska is looking at 100 million pinks statewide but that's often been the total over the last few years so there's nothing too extraordinary there.
The yen is looking brighter for Canadian exporters, having gone up about seven per cent in value over the last month. That should buoy prices up as well.
ma
From
A LIMITED COMPANY
X
S6a series 543-800 BHP
MITSUBISHI
SIMPSON POWER PRODUCTS LTD.
11545 Kingston St., Maple Ridge (Vancouver), B.C. Canada, V2X 0Z5 Tel: (604) 460-3611 Fax: (604) 460-1974 Parts Direct: (604) 460-3301
BUYERS OF GOOD QUALITY HALIBUT.
TOP PRICES • GOOD SERVICES • UNLOADING COASTWIDE • BAIT AVAILABLE
S.M. PRODUCTS LTD. 946-7665
Jorn NORDMANN 943-I2I6
Fax:
Blake TIPTON 290-2454
946-0176
electronics
FLAG
CHEVROLET-GEO-OLDSMOBILE LTD.
15250 - 104th Avenue Surrey, B.C. V3R 6N8
DAVID HOFSTAD
Sales Representative Bus: (604) 584-7411
Fax: (604) 584-7484 Res: (604) 596-7890
> Gillnet or Seine
WESMAR SALMON SONAR
>■ Increase your odds with Wesmar HD600, HD670 or HD800 scanning sonar.
>- Superb small target resolution.
>■ Fast, simple operation comes with 15" or 17" SVGA monitor.
>• Lowest initial cost for maximum catch return.
>■ Huge success in Alaska Salmon Fisheries.
WE'VE BEEN SELLING AND SERVICING SONARS FOR 12 YEARS!
phone 250-286-3717 fax 250-286-0434
1437-A ISLAND HWY, CAMPBELL RIVER, B.C. V9W 2E4
