Page 2
THE FISHERMAN
May 19, 1953
Mystery of the Missing Salmon
TheTiTherman
By W. RIGBY (Research Director, UFAWU)
Over 220,000 cases of canned salmon are missing.
Even at $15 a case the missing salmon would represent a value of over $3,000,000. Imagine the newspaper stories if this salmon had been stolen—"the greatest robbery of the century" would be the least sensational headline to be expected.
The mystery of the missing salmon is that the fishing companies say they have the fish in the warehouse. But official figures and reliable estimates (issued by the same companies) indicate the salmon has been sold. So let's spend a little time looking over the clues to solve the mystery of the missing salmon.
★ * *
Negotiations are now proceeding as to the prices to be paid for salmon in 1953 by the companies to the fishermen. A considerable gulf exists between the greatly reduced prices proposed by the companies and the prices asked by the fishermen.
Both parties in the negotiations have expressed the desire for a full operation in 1953.
The operators' spokesman has stated: "We may both have to modify our thinking in order to get a full operation ... we need to examine conditions on a factual basis with no wishful thinking" and has appealed for "frankness without bitterness, facts without fiction."
It may be difficult to obtain agreement as to the level of wholesale prices at which the 1953 salmon pack will be sold. Any answer to this question involves a prediction and no prediction can possibly be proven in advance of the event. But it should be possible to easily agree how much canned -salmon is presently on hand and how much therefore can be reasonably expected to remain unsold on July 1, a scant six weeks away, when 1953 fishing should be well underway if prices have been settled.
★ ★ *
On May 11 Homer Stevens as spokesman for the fishermen stated: "We estimate that there will be less than 100,000 cases of canned salmon in canners' hands when the season is due to start and it is possible that stocks may be almost entirely cleaned up before fishing starts."
On May 14 E. L. Harrison as spokesman for the fishing companies stated: "We expect to be holding 274,000 cases as a carryover on July 1 which is quite different from the estimate you made. The major portion is bound to be sockeye and cohoe."
The difference between the two estimates is the mystery of the missing salmon. Let us examine these estimates more closely to see whether we can disentangle fact from fiction.
★ * *
The Union estimate is based upon the following figures:
On hand July 1, 1952 ...................................................... 517,392 cases
1952 Pack ..................................................^........................ 1,286,468 cases
Available for sale July 1, 1952—July 1, 1953 ..........
Domestic sales July 1, 1952—July 1, 1953 (estimate) Exports July 1, 1953—March 31, 1953 (9 months) ..
1,803,860 cases 900,000 cases 658,117 cases
Balance on Hand, March 31, 1953 British Contract ...............................
245,743 cases 205,000 cases
Possible Carryover July 1, 1953 .................................... 40,743 cases
The first Union estimate was made when the March figures for canned salmon exports had not yet been issued by the Dominion Bureau of Statistics. At the end of February it was indicated 338,460 cases were on hand, leaving a possible 133,000 cases after the British contract order was deducted. March exports of 92,717 cases made the possibility of a complete clean-out of stocks by July 1 very realistic according to this estimate.
★ ★ ★
The companies' prediction is based on the following figures given by their spokesman to the fishermen's negotiating committee on May 14:
On hand July 1, 1952................................................... 642,000 cases
Pack 1952 ............................................................................ 1,298,557 cases
Available for sale July 1, 1952—July 1, 1953 ............ 1,940,557 cases
Domestic Sales July 1, 1952—April 30, 1953 ............ 686,000 cases
Domestic Sales May 1, 1953—June 30, 1953 (estimate) 125,000 cases
Exports July 1, 1952—April 30, 1953 (10 months) .... 620,000 cases
Exports May 1, 1953—June 30, 1953 (estimate) ...... 25,000 cases
Available before British contract British contract.................................
484,557 cases 205,000 cases
1953
279,557 cases
Estimated carryover July 1
★ * *
Let's compare these two estimates to see where the difference lies. The Union's estimate is that there will be at most 40,743 cases of unsold salmon on hand on July 1.   Any exports (apart from the British contract) in the three-month period April-June could clean all available stocks out entirely.
The operators' claim is that there will be at least 279,557 cases on hand July 1. The difference between the two estimates is 238,814 cases.
"SHAME on you," said the boss to the office boy. "Do you know what we do with office boys who tell lies?"
"Yes, sir. When they get old enough the firm sends them out as salesmen."
★ * ★
★ *      * » FISHERMAN: "Where I made
my big mistake was in telling my girl friend about my rich uncle." Friend: "How come?" Fisherman:   "She's   my aunt now."
★ * ★
NERVOUS gunman: "Stick 'em up or else." Victim: "Or else what?" Nervous gunman: "Look, bud, don't confuse me; this is my first job."
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THE BORE was relating at some length his war experiences. "The transport I was on got torpedoed," he said, "and I found myself all alone in the middle of the Atlantic. For almost a week I lived on two cans of sardines."
One of his listeners interrupted: "What an experience! And how did you manage to keep your balance?"
★      * *
"YOU SAY typographical errors often bring out the truth?"
"Yes, listen to this item: 'The doctor felt the patient's purse and announced there was no hope."
Published Every Tuesday Except the Last Tuesday of Each Month by Ilie Fisherman Publishing Society, 301 Powell St., Vancouver, B.C. G. NORTH—Editor       —       Phone: MArine 1829 Copies Printed This Issue: 9,200
Authorized as Second-Class Mail by Post Office Department, Ottawa
1.
2. 3. 4.
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This difference—the mystery of the missing salmon—is made up of four parts:
The operators' pack figure is 12,089 cases higher than the figure used by the Union.
The operators' estimate of export sales (645,000 cases) is 13,117 cases below the Union's figures.
The operators' estimate of domestic sales (811,000. cases) is 89,999 cases less than the Union estimate of 900,000 cases. The operators' figures for the carryover with which they started the 1952 season (642,000 cases) is 124,608 cases higher than the Union estimate of 517,392 cases.
Let us now examine each of these parts individually: 1952 PACK FIGURES
The Union figure for the pack was that issued at the end of the season by the department of fisheries. The operators stated that their figure is 12,000,cases higher because some fish originally frozen was canned later. Since the difference involved and the explanation is reasonable there is no cause why the higher figure should not be accepted as correct. 1952-53 EXPORT SALES
The Union's figure is based on statistics issued by the federal government in the monthly publication "Trade of Canada: Exports." The source for these figures is the invoices and official forms the exporter must make out and supply to the customs officers. For obvious reasons government export figures can hardly be higher than actual exports. They may be lower than actual exports if there is smuggling or unreported exports going on. A charitable explanation of why the operators' figure for exports is less than the government figure would be that some Canadian brokers bought certain quantities from fishing companies and then exported the salmon on their own account. In any case, the difference in the estimates under this heading (13,000 cases) would be too small, if no other differences were involved, to constitute a mystery. 1952-53 DOMESTIC SALES
Under this heading we come to the first BIG difference (89,000 cases) between the operators' figure and that contained in the Union estimate. But on this difference the operators are not really arguing with the Union—their dispute is with themselves.
On March 19, 1953, the following item was published in the Fisheries Association bulletin "Facts on Fish":
"By early 1948 the industry had heeded the warnings of failing export markets and turned its attention to Canada. Promotion and advertising on an individual company basis was increased, and in 1949, the national no-brand campaign by the Associated Salmon Canners was inaugurated. Since that time the industry has spent some $900,000 on this cooperative venture and the results are wellknown:
Canadian Consumption (In Cases) Pre-War 1948-49    1949-50    1950-51    1951-52 1952-53
550,000 app.    772,846    905,226    883,183    814,184    900,000 (Est).
"The decline in domestic sales in the two years from 1950 to 1952 was due to high production costs, the chief drop being in sales of pinks and chums. Although the per capita consumption of canned salmon in Canada is about four times that of the U.S.A., it is still not high enough," said "Facts on Fish."
The Union estimate of 900,000 cases for domestic sales in 1952-53 was therefore taken from what the canners said in March. Now, in May, the canners want to reduce the estimate by 89,000 cases. When are we to believe them—in March or in May? Disregarding those who insist they will only accept a canner's figures on February 29 of any odd year, I believe that the 900,000 case estimate in March is reasonably accurate and the 811,000 estimate in May is not a factual statement. My reasons for this opinion are first — there was no motive for a misleading estimate in March; and second, if we accept the canners' May estimate of 811,000 cases for 1952-53 domestic sales we would have to believe that their domestic sales last year were lower, from their own figures, than those in any year since they started large scale advertising in 1949. In spite of lower prices to the consumer, in spite of more advertising, in spite of special contests we are now asked to believe domestic sales in 1952-53 were less than the 814,184 cases reported sold by the canners in 1951-52 when retail prices were at peak. I don't believe it. CARRY-OVER FROM 1951
The biggest difference between the two estimates (125,000 cases) is in the starting figures of the carry-over at the beginning of the 1952 season. The operators say they started the season with a carryover on July 1, 1952, of 642,000 cases from the previous year. They offer no proof for their figures.
The Union estimates the carry-over on July 1, 1952, to have been 517,392 cases. What is the proof of the correctness of the Union's figure?
The Union says we started the 1951 season without any stocks on hand. The pack in 1951 was 1,956,397 cases. Domestic sales in 1951-52 were 814,184 cases according to the operators' own figures. Export sales from July 1, 1951, to June 30, 1952, were 624,821 cases according to government figures. Add up the sales and subtract from the pack and you get the answer—517,392 cases on hand on July 1, 1952.
The operators' figure of 642,000 cases to be plausible would require the existence of a carry-over of 125,000 cases from 1950 when 1951 fishing started. But everyone knows that there was no appreciable quantity of canned salmon in the warehouse when the 1951 season started and it was only the record catch of that year that created the surplus.
★ ★ ★
Summarising this analysis of the differences between the estimates of the companies and of the Union as to how much canned salmon will be on hand in cannery warehouses on July 1, 1953, it would appear that to be factual the Union should increase its estimate by 12,089 cases and the companies should reduce their estimate by 226,725 cases.
If that is done both sides will get the same answer, 52,832 cases, the mystery of the missing salmon will be solved and the problem of not missing any salmon in 1953 can be faced with all the earnestness it requires.
■ 1 ■ 1 1 1 1 1 ■ 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
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By ZERO TIDE
We find ourselves in complete agreement with the man who very wisely wrote: "A society of sheep must, in time, beget a gov-
vernment of wolves."
* * ★
Looking back a full 10 years ago, we note that halibut prices paid in Vancouver and Prince Rupert were listed with the season opening in May 1 back in 1943. On May 15, three boats landed their N fares in Vancouver — the 'Rose N," "Covenant," and "Bruce 1."
Prices paid were 21 to 21.6 medium, 19 to 20 chix, and 18.6 to
19.3 large. Prince   Rupert  prices  for tfie
same day were 16 cents chix and
19.4 to 20 for medium and large. Cost of living in the last 10
years has gone up by something like 50 percent but what do you think halibut prices will be this season compared with those we just quoted?
* * ★
In that issue of May 18, 1943, Effie Oliphant had an interesting article following the Union convention in which she urged shore-workers to organise. Effie was elected to a two-year term as trustee of Local 89, Fish Cannery, Reduction Plant and Allied Workers Union.
* * ★
Returning to the present, word has it that Norman Ryall has purchased the steel, refrigerated vessel "Spica Spanker" from the GAFF Credit Union with the intention of taking her out on the tuna. She's a beautiful vessel, built only a couple of years ago at a cost estimated in the vicinity of $45,000.
* * * Bill  Vogel  and son  Bill, Jr.,
from Stuart Island were in Vancouver for a visit recently. They came in aboard their packer the "Zapora."
* ★ ★
Congratulations to Alf Christof-ferson, Lars Dahl, and Pete Pave-lich on their election to the UFAWU general executive board. The three became executive members by virtue of their convention vote and following election of Reg Payne, Homer Stevens, and Alex Gordon as officers. When the latter three made it, it left three vacancies on the general executive board.
George Basso from Gabriola Island is having the engine of his seiner "Anita C" overhauled in Vancouver.
★ * * Everybody    must   know Bob
Wulff, one of the active members of the Fishermen's Co-op Association and in a managerial capacity for many years. Well, Bob has opened his own little stamp shop in New Westminster at 609 Clark-son Avenue, which is somewhere near the post office. It's called Bob's Stamp Shop and Bob will no doubt be pleased to meet some of his friends, especially if they are stamp collectors.
★ ★ ★
Pleased to see that Pete Daniel-son, troller "Kitty D," has made a quick recovery from his recent illness and has left for the Queen Charlotte Islands to join the fishing fleet.
★ * *
S. Rajaniemi, troller "Nubuoy" left for the west coast last week but not before joining the United Fishermen and Allied Workers Union.   Good luck, fellow.
★ * *
Advice to politicians being heckled to death: just tell the heckler, "Look, if you want to heckle me, I'll go out and check my brains, and then we'll both start even." Trouble is a lot of the people running for political office must have checked their brains long ago.
★ * ★ Say, if a cop that walks his beat
is called a flatfoot, what do they call a motorcycle cop?
★ ★ ★ A straying husband, off with
his sweetie for a hilarious weekend, took too many whisky sours and wired his wife: "Having wonderful time.  Wish you were her."
★ ★ * Sentences which read the same
both forward and backward are called palindromes. Here are a few:
Able was I ere I saw Elba
(Napoleon). Name no one man. Red root put up to order. Draw pupil's lip upward. No; it is opposition.
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