August 9, 1955
THE FISHERMAN
Page 3
What Are Prospects for 1955-56 Herring Season
By F. H. C. TAYLOR Pacific Biological Station
This is the eleventh in an annual series of circulars dealing with the prospects of the British Columbia herring fishery. The forecasts are made to aid in the formation of effective management policies and to help the industry use the resource more efficiently.
The accuracy of the forecast depends on:
J   The correctness of the assessment  of   future population abundance.
2 The assumption that herring will be available to the fishery in proportion to their abundance.
3 Upon fishing effort remaining approximately the same over
a period of years.
The estimation of future population abundance is based on the relative abundance of herring in the previous fishing season as determined from the size of the catch, the ease with which it was t'aken, and the amount of fish left to spawn, and the quantities of fish expected to enter the fishery before the next season, as determined from an assessment of the relative strengths of the various year-classes.
Three   important assumptions are made in estimating population abundance the previous year and in predicting recruitment: J   That the age composition derived  from  the  fishing and spawn tuns represents that of the whole population. 2   That the proportion of young fish in the runs gives an approximate indication of the amount of recruitment to be expected. That the extent and intensity of spawn deposition is propor tional to the size of the spawning population.
The availability of herring to the fishing fleet may be affected by factors at present little understood, which influence the migration of herring from the offshore feeding grounds to the inshore spawning grounds. In general, however» catch appears to be approximately proportional to population abundance.
In an effort to make the predictions of fishing success more informative and generally useful, the method of presentation has been altered. The forecast for each sub-district is given in a summarised form in the accompanying
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table. For those who wish additional information, for each sub-district the status of the stock is discussed under the headings: level of abundance in previous seasons, relative strength of the year-classes, expected recruitment, conclusions, or forecast, as to the level of abundance in the coming season.
While the treatment and method of presentation adopted may make the forecasts appear more definite and precise than in the past, this is not so. The forecast of the amount of recruitment still remains, in essence, little more than an informed guess. There has been no change in the method of making the forecasts or in the reliability of the data on which they are based.
Status of Stocks
QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS SUB-DISTRICT [Areas 2A(E) and 2B(E)|
Area 2A(E)
Level of abundance: The level of abundance was high in this area in 1953-54 and 1954-55. In the latter season, however, fish were not as plentiful as in the former. In 1953-54, availability was 221 tons per-seine-day as compared with only 76 tons per-seine-day in 1954-55.
Relative strength of year-classes: The 1949 year-class, which dominated the fishing in 1953-54, and the 1951 year-class, which dominated the fishery in 1954-55, were stronger than the 1950 and particularly the 1952 years-classes. The 1949 year - class was probably stronger than the 1951 year-class.
Recruitment: In 1955-56, the 1952 year-class is not expected to make as heavy a contribution as IV-year fish as did the 1951 year-class. The 1951 year-class as V-year olds may dominate the fishery.   The pres-
ence of large numbers of small fish in 1954-55 may indicate that the 1953 year-class may make a gaod showing. However, not enough is known of this population to assess properly the significance of the presence of small fish.
CONCLUSION OR FORECAST: Because of the comparative weakness of the 1952 year-class, the level of abundance in 1955-56 is expected to be less than in 1954-55. A further1 increase in effort will be required and the catch may
be smaller1 unless the 1953 year-class makes a strong entry.
Area 2B(E)
Data are insufficient to allow an I adequate forecast of the fishery. A marked drop in spawn deposi- j tion suggests a lower level of abundance in 1954-55 than in 1953-54.
Therefore, unless the 1953 year-class makes a strong entry into the fishery, there may be a further decrease in abundance in 1955-56.
NORTHERN SUB-DISTRICT I Areas 3, 4 and 5 J
Level of abundance: The catch, availability and spawn records suggest that the level of abundance has been declining in the past three seasons. In 1954-55 only two-thirds of the quota was taken. Spawn depositions in 1955 showed an increase, however, over the previous year, due principally to increased spawning in Area 5.
Relative strength of year-classes: Evidence indicates that the 1949, 1950 and 1951 year-classes were probably average ar below average in size. The 1951 year-class, which was dominant as IV-year fish in 1954-55 was probably stronger than either the 1949 or the 1950 year-classes. The 1952 year-class gave the poorest contribution of Ill-year fishin the last 10 years and may be well below average strength.
Recruitment: In 1955-56, the 1.951 year-class as V-year fish may dom-
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OUTLOOK SUMMARISED
Sub-District
QUEEN
CHARLOTTE
ISLANDS
FORECAST
NORTHERN
CENTRAL
UPPER EAST COAST
Area 2A(E): The level of abun dance will be lower in 1955-56 A further increase in effort will be required and the catch will be smaller unless the 1953 year class makes an unexpectedly strong entry. Area 2B(E): The level of abundance will probably be lower Data insufficient for adequate forecast.
Further reduction in level of abundance expected. Unlikely that quota will be reached, catch may be less than in 1954-55. \bundance will be less than in 1954-55. Quota may not be reach sd. Fishing in Area 6 may be better than in Area 7. Catches in Area 9 will not be as good as in 1953-54 or 1954-55.
Larger than in 1954-55.
MIDDLE BAST COAST
LOWER EAST COAST
WEST COAST
Abundance will decrease from the high level of the past three years and as good catches cannot ae expected. With normal, effort Vz to % of the quota may be taken.
Abundance expected to remain at a high level. Summer fishery prospects as good as in previous /ears. Provided summer fishery .akes less than 10,000 tons, an additional 10,000 tons could be :aken in the winter fishery in \rea 13. Further quota extensions should depend on apparent abun lance of fish on the grounds dur ing the 1955-56 season.
Smaller than in 1954-55.
\bundance maybe lower than in 1954-55, but the quota should be aken as readily as in previous /ears. Quota extension may be warranted it' apparent abundance if fish on grounds at end of regu ar fishery is high.
ireas 23 and 24: Some increase in level of abundance can be expected in 1955-56. Catches should be better than in 1954-55, although hey may still be somewhat be-ow average.
Areas 25 and 26: A continuation of the poor fishery is expected with a possibility of a slight increase over 1954-55. Fishing will not be as good as in' Areas 23 and 24.
Area 27: Abundance in 1955-56 not expected to be as high as in 1954-55 and fishing will not be
as good.
Relative Size
On the average larger than in 1954-55.
Larger than in 1954-55.
Larger than in 1954-55.
Slightly larger than in 1954-55.
About the same as in 1954-55.
About the same as in 1954-55.
About the same as in 1954-55.
Smaller in 1954-55.
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inate- The contribution af IV-year fish by the 1952 year-class will probably be relatively small. From its showing as II-year fish the 1953 year-class may be stronger than the 1952 year-class but is not expected to be above-average.
CONCLUSION OR FORECAST: There is little likelihood that there will be an improvement in catch in this sub-district in 1955-56. The fish should be of slightly larger average size.
CENTRAL SUB-DISTRICT I Areas 6, 7, 8, 9 and 10]
Level of abundance: Population abundance is at a relatively low level. In 1954-55 the quota was not reached for the second year in succession, the catch was the smallest since 1946-47. The fishery depended mainly on the small 'local" populations. Only scatter-.ed catches were made from the usually important "offshore" populations.
Spawn deposition in 1955 was slightly below-average and was less than in 1954. Decreases occurred in Areas 6, 8, and 10. Spawning in Area 6 remained low for the fourth successive year, and in Area 10 was reduced to a little below the level existing prior to the marked increase that occurred in 1953.
In Area 7, spawning was approximately the same as in 1954 and was not below the' average for past years.
Relative strength of year-classes: In all areas in the central sub-district, the 1951 year-class, IV-year-old fish, was dominant. The year-class can be considered of no more than average strength. The 1952 year-class made one af the poorest contributions for III-year-old fish in recent history, and should be considered a weak year-class. The 1953 year-class as II-year fish was better represented than was the 1952 year-class in 1953-54.
Recruitment: In 1955-56, the 1951 year-class as V-year fish may dominate the fishery. The 1952 year-class will make a relatively weak contribution as IV-year fish, and the 1953 year-class a slightly better contributian as Ill's than did the 1952 year-class.
CONCLUSION OR FORECAST: Abundance may, therefore, be slightly less than in 1954-55, and
the quota again may not be taken. Fishing in Area 6 may be better than in Area 7. It is unlikely that catches in Area 9 will be as good as in 1953-54 or 1954-55. The fish will be of slightly larger average size.
UPPER EAST COAST SUB-DISTRICT I Areas 11 and 121 Level of abundance: In the past two seasons, abundance has been at a fairly high level, due largely to the contributions of a strong
1951 year-class. This year-class dominated the fishery as Ill-year fish in 1953-54 and as IV-year fish in 1954-55. In 1953-54 catch, spawn and availability were about average; in 1954-55, spawning was reduced, but catch and availability were high due largely to the exploitation of new fishing grounds in Seymour Inlet and Nugent Sound.
Relative strength of year-classes:
The 1951 year-class was probably of  above-average strength. The
1952 year-class is weaker than the 1951 year-class, but may be of average strength.
Recruitment: In 1955-56, the 1951 year-class as V's cannot be expected to make a large contribution nor can the 1952 year-class be expected to contribute as heavily as IV-year fish as did the 1951 year-class. From their contribution as I- and Il-year-old fish in 1954-55, the 1954 and 1953 year-classes appear to be relatively weak.
CONCLUSION   OR FORECAST: In 1955-56 abundance is expected to decrease from the high level of the past two years and as good catches cannot be expected. With a normal amount of effort, one-half to three-quarters of the quota may be taken. Fish will be smaller in size  because of the expected younger average age af the fish. MIDDLE EAST COAST SUB-DISTRICT LAreas 13, 14, 15 and 16]
Level    of    abundance: Large
See HERRING PROSPECTS —Page 4
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